A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
